Results: 9 from 13
Updated Sunday 4 October after the main event. The card read went 9 from 13. Every favourite landed except Ateba Gautier, and all three of the outsiders we liked lost.
- Won Hernandez, Jacobe Smith, Wint, Pinas, Imanol Rodriguez, Soldic, Ribovics, Talbott, and Natalia Silva in the main event
- Lost Court McGee (Nolan won), Vettori (Naurdiev won), Parkin (Walker won), Gautier (Kopylov won)
- Combo Kagiso won 4 of his 7 singles: Hernandez, Soldic, Silva and Rodriguez. Gautier, Parkin and Vettori lost. Down R1 216 on the R10 000.
- Ticket Stacker Tanya lost all three tickets on one leg. The Safe Acca landed 7 of its 8; Gautier was the eighth, and he sat in all three. Down R10 000.
Same size as the picks, as promised. Both bots are back on R10 000 for the next card.
Thirteen fights, one read on every one of them, and R20 000 of play money from our two AI fight bots riding on the result. Here is who we think wins, at what price and why, followed by exactly what Combo Kagiso and Ticket Stacker Tanya have put on it.
The setting matters tonight. Utah sits well over a kilometre above sea level, and thin air punishes fighters who go out fast and fade. That runs through several of the calls below, especially in the prelims. The price next to each pick is the bookmaker's decimal odds when we published: 1.50 means R150 back for every R100, so the bigger the number, the bigger the upset.
Who wins every fight
These are the calls, not the bets. Every fight gets a pick, and the bets further down come from this sheet.
The market has made Nolan a big favourite because McGee is past 40. Nolan has not proven much in the UFC yet, this is McGee's retirement fight in his home state, and the altitude can drain Nolan's cardio badly if it goes long.
Vettori has looked poor for a couple of years, but Naurdiev tends to fade after the first round, and that is a bigger problem at altitude. Vettori has enough left to mix in wrestling and tire him out.
Hernandez can have off nights, but dos Anjos is over 40 and coming back from a serious injury and a two-year layoff. Hard to back that against an active fighter.
Whitehead is making his debut and could become a decent fighter. Smith is simply on another level: he can strike, wrestle and submit you.
The market can barely split them. Walker has not been active and his output has dropped. Parkin is a good boxer and much bigger and stronger, with the size to pin him on the fence or take him down.
Wint is one of the more explosive prospects at heavyweight: power, submissions and good wrestling. A big favourite for a reason.
Pulyaev only gets into this if he survives round one and starts pressing with volume. Pinas is sharper on the feet, throws more, and is strong enough to grapple if he has to.
The feature prelim. Coria is a sharp boxer but can be too defensive. Rodriguez brings power and forward pressure, and he can take the back and finish on the mat.
Kopylov is the more seasoned striker, but he does not like being pressured, and Gautier is always on the front foot with real power. That pressure alone can bank him two rounds.
Williams still carries knockout power, but he has not reacted well to getting hit in recent fights. Soldic arrives in the UFC fully committed and looking to make a statement.
The hardest fight on the card to call. Green keeps winning as the underdog and his striking is excellent, but he fights with his hands low and his chin has let him down. Ribovics throws a lot, hits hard, kicks to the head and is durable enough to go three hard rounds.
Very few paths to victory for Figueiredo. He is the smaller man, unlikely to have the power to stop Talbott, and unlikely to hold him down. Talbott's power is on a different level.
Two kickers. Silva has more variety (side kicks, leg kicks, body and head), faster hands, and better movement and defence. That is the difference.
The bets
The fight club bets this sheet with R10 000 a bot, the house rule for every card. Kagiso takes clean singles. Tanya folds the picks into accas, and only inside our three bands: Safe pays 5 to 9 times the stake, Medium 9 to 16, Risky 20 and up. No short-priced "sure thing" accas.
Combo Kagiso
Seven picks from the sheet, staked by confidence. McGee and Ribovics missed out because their share of the budget came in under the R1 000 minimum bet.
| Pick | Price | Stake | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandezv dos Anjos | 1.37 | R1 844 | R2 526 |
| Ateba Gautierv Kopylov | 1.44 | R1 713 | R2 459 |
| Roberto Soldicv Williams | 1.46 | R1 437 | R2 091 |
| Natalia Silvav Wang | 1.49 | R1 335 | R1 986 |
| Imanol Rodriguezv Coria | 1.73 | R1 264 | R2 181 |
| Mick Parkinv Walker | 1.92 | R1 245 | R2 386 |
| Marvin Vettoriv Naurdiev | 2.15 | R1 162 | R2 499 |
Ticket Stacker Tanya
One ladder, built up from the strongest favourites. Every leg has to win. The split call (Ribovics) and McGee at 2.85 stay out of her tickets.
| Ticket | Price | Stake | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Safe Acca, 8 legsSmith, Talbott, Pinas, Wint, Hernandez, Gautier, Soldic, Silva | 7.29 | R5 000 | R36 450 |
| The Medium, 9 legsThe Safe eight plus Rodriguez | 12.62 | R3 000 | R37 860 |
| The Risky, 10 legsThe Medium nine plus Parkin | 24.23 | R2 000 | R48 460 |
Where we could be wrong
Two of the calls go against the market: McGee at 2.85 and Vettori at 2.15. If the altitude angle is right, those are the results that make the night. Parkin against Walker is a genuine coin flip. And Tanya's whole ladder rests on the eight shortest favourites. Favourites lose in the UFC every week, and one upset in that group takes all three tickets with it.
We publish every result the same size as every pick. The results are at the top of this post, wins and losses alike.
Think you can call it better?
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